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Table 2 Shewhart’s control rules sensitivity and PPV for predicting manic episodes within the next 4 weeks

From: Control charts for monitoring mood stability as a predictor of severe episodes in patients with bipolar disorder

  Manic episodes Episodes preceded by any rule activation Rules activated Rules followed by an episode
n n Sensitivity% (95% CI) n n PPV% (95% CI)
Universal X-bar charts
 Short run-in period cohort
  Original dataa 53a 16a 30 (19, 45)a 439a 29a 7 (5, 9)a
  LVCF imputed data 53 18 34 (22, 48) 755 47 6 (5, 8)
 Long run-in period cohort
  Original data 25 14 56 (35, 75) 548 22 4 (3, 6)
  LVCF imputed data 25 15 60 (39, 78) 958 35 4 (3, 5)
Personalized X-bar charts
 Short run-in period cohort
  Original data 53 15 28 (17, 43) 666 29 4 (3, 6)
  LVCF imputed data 53 18 34 (22, 48) 1052 42 4 (3, 5)
 Long run-in period cohort
  Original data 25 10 40 (22, 61) 421 15 4 (2, 6)
  LVCF imputed data 25 12 48 (28, 68) 711 25 4 (2, 5)
Individual-moving range charts
 Short run-in period cohort
  Original data
   Individual chart 53 17 32 (20, 46) 944 35 4 (3, 5)
   Moving range chart 53 22 42 (28, 56) 1333 49 4 (3, 5)
  LVCF imputed data
   Individual chart 53 20 38 (25, 52) 1415 49 3 (3, 5)
   Moving range chart 53 27 51 (37, 65) 2027 76 4 (3, 5)
 Long run-in period cohort
  Original data
   Individual chart 25 10 40 (22, 61) 635 23 4 (2, 5)
   Moving range chart 25 13 52 (32, 72) 1078 27 3 (2, 4)
  LVCF imputed data
   Individual chart 25 11 44 (25, 65) 1012 34 3 (2, 5)
   Moving range chart 25 15 60 (39, 78) 1697 44 3 (2, 3)
  1. PPV positive predictive value, CI confidence interval, LVCF last value carried forward
  2. aResults from main analysis