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Table 3 Shewhart’s control rules sensitivity and PPV for predicting depressive episodes within the next 4 weeks

From: Control charts for monitoring mood stability as a predictor of severe episodes in patients with bipolar disorder

  Depressive episodes Episodes preceded by any rule activation Rules activated Rules followed by an episode
n n Sensitivity % (95% CI) n n PPV % (95% CI)
Universal X-bar charts
 Short run-in period cohort
  Original dataa 67a 22a 33 (22, 46)a 395a 34a 9 (6, 12)a
  LVCF imputed data 67 27 40 (29, 53) 777 51 7 (5, 9)
 Long run-in period cohort
  Original data 32 11 34 (19, 53) 456 19 4 (3, 7)
  LVCF imputed data 32 11 34 (19, 53) 924 20 2 (1, 3)
Personalized X-bar charts
 Short run-in period cohort
  Original data 67 12 18 (10, 30) 520 21 4 (3, 6)
  LVCF imputed data 67 15 22 (13, 53) 848 33 4 (3, 5)
 Long run-in period cohort
  Original data 32 11 34 (19, 53) 430 26 6 (4, 9)
  LVCF imputed data 32 10 31 (17, 50) 749 27 4 (2, 5)
Individual-moving range charts
 Short run-in period cohort
  Original data
   Individual chart 67 13 19 (11, 31) 785 26 3 (2, 5)
  Moving range chart 67 38 57 (44, 69) 3790 119 3 (3, 4)
  LVCF imputed data
   Individual chart 67 17 25 (16, 38) 1222 42 3 (3, 5)
   Moving range chart 67 44 66 (53, 77) 5170 160 3 (3, 4)
 Long run-in period cohort
  Original data
   Individual chart 32 12 38 (22, 56) 749 30 4 (3, 6)
   Moving range chart 32 22 69 (50, 83) 3246 61 2 (1, 2)
  LVCF imputed data
   Individual chart 32 12 38 (22, 56) 1170 33 3 (2, 4)
   Moving range chart 32 23 72 (53, 86) 4451 75 2 (1, 2)
  1. PPV positive predictive value, CI confidence interval, LVCF last value carried forward
  2. aResults from the main analysis