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Table 3 Mean accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, and positive predictive value (PPV) across time intervals and 10 CV-folds for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year predictions for PLANN and the discrete survival model

From: Predicting the risk and timing of major mood disorder in offspring of bipolar parents: exploring the utility of a neural network approach

Model Threshold Accuracy Specificity Sensitivity PPV
One year
 PLANNa
  0.05 0.751 0.762 0.272 0.064
  0.10 0.948 0.986 0.019 0.051
  0.15
  0.20
  Optimalb 0.681 0.683 0.488 0.081
 Survival
  0.05 0.772 0.783 0.360 0.073
  0.10 0.895 0.924 0.186 0.100
  0.15 0.927 0.960 0.128 0.133
  0.20 0.940 0.976 0.083 0.160
  Optimalb 0.556 0.560 0.383 0.043
Three year
 PLANN
  0.05 0.269 0.186 0.822 0.107
  0.10 0.588 0.583 0.443 0.111
  0.15 0.762 0.808 0.257 0.167
  0.20 0.818 0.899 0.096 0.143
  Optimalb 0.591 0.591 0.506 0.134
 Survival
  0.05 0.270 0.181 0.791 0.101
  0.10 0.533 0.513 0.483 0.111
  0.15 0.760 0.813 0.218 0.125
  0.20 0.841 0.919 0.128 0.134
  Optimalb 0.572 0.582 0.474 0.130
Five year
 PLANN
  0.05 0.222 0.070 0.934 0.162
  0.10 0.425 0.335 0.709 0.169
  0.15 0.582 0.546 0.565 0.210
  0.20 0.687 0.722 0.360 0.213
  0.607 0.617 0.577 0.230 0.607
 Survival
  0.05 0.264 0.116 0.893 0.161
  0.10 0.410 0.300 0.662 0.143
  0.15 0.548 0.511 0.508 0.160
  0.20 0.709 0.738 0.420 0.238
  Optimalb 0.601 0.615 0.515 0.224
  1. aOne-year predictions made by PLANN were all below 0.15 and therefore, thresholds of 0.15 or greater could not be evaluated for accuracy metrics
  2. bThe Optimal rows present the average accuracy metrics across time intervals when the optimal threshold of each time interval is used (see Additional file 1)