International Journal of Bipolar Disorders

Table 2 Comparison of the evaluation metrics for PLANN and the discrete survival model with 1-year, 3-year and 5-year predictions

From: Predicting the risk and timing of major mood disorder in offspring of bipolar parents: exploring the utility of a neural network approach

	One-year		Three-year		Five-year
	PLANN	survival	PLANN	survival	PLANN	survival
Mean Brier Score^a	0.177	0.180	0.182	0.188	0.179	0.190
C-index	0.633	0.556	0.549	0.513	0.590	0.520
Mean AUC(SD)^b	0.633 (0.170)	0.740 (0.144)	0.708 (0.123)	0.655 (0.124)	0.745 (0.076)	0.669 (0.063)

^aThe mean Brier score is the average Brier score across 15, 20, and 25 years
^bThe mean AUC is the average AUC across the time intervals measured

Back to article page