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Table 2 Comparison of the evaluation metrics for PLANN and the discrete survival model with 1-year, 3-year and 5-year predictions

From: Predicting the risk and timing of major mood disorder in offspring of bipolar parents: exploring the utility of a neural network approach

  One-year Three-year Five-year
PLANN survival PLANN survival PLANN survival
Mean Brier Scorea 0.177 0.180 0.182 0.188 0.179 0.190
C-index 0.633 0.556 0.549 0.513 0.590 0.520
Mean AUC(SD)b 0.633 (0.170) 0.740 (0.144) 0.708 (0.123) 0.655 (0.124) 0.745 (0.076) 0.669 (0.063)
  1. aThe mean Brier score is the average Brier score across 15, 20, and 25 years
  2. bThe mean AUC is the average AUC across the time intervals measured