Fig. 3

Positive and negative predictive values for each early warning signal. The y-axis represents each momentary state, the x-axis the positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive value, separated for manic and depressive transitions and for the two early warning signals (EWS) indicators: the autocorrelation (AR) and standard deviation (SD). The predictive values can be compared against the prevalence of the transition: the proportion of manic (32%), depressive (36%), or no transitions (68% for mania and 64% for depression). White tiles indicate that this EWS did not improve the detection of a transition above the prevalence of that transition. The color indicates the magnitude of the predictive value for that EWS: the more intense the color, the higher the predictive value. To facilitate interpretation, the EMA momentary states were assigned to summary categories based on hypothesized underlying constructs